A Slow/Fast-moving trend can be identified using ADX.

Good study.

The first chart below is a basic version of Gann's Rule of Three from his Wall Street Stock Selector book.  Gann provided the data in the book which I converted to Excel and then Metastock format so I could be read by Bullcharts.  Gann suggested he sold the Rule of Three to other traders who wanted to know his secret for over $1,000 before 1930.  As it is a time and price method for fast-moving stocks, I suspect it was a practical application of his Law of Vibration from 1909.

The Rule of Three is looking for three sequential closes in the opposite direction to the main fast-oving trend.  The rule does not work so well with slow moving trends.

My study of wave price vibrations suggest technical indicators will be of no help to identify a market bottom until at least 3 to 7 daily bars have expired after a market has turned around.

Anyone who has studied JM Hurst will recall that he suggested forseeable fundamental events influencing investor thinking about industry groups and specific issues account for 75% of the price motion of stocks or the trends.  That seems to hold true for Covid-19 as it was only in March 2020 when the market panicked after understanding the full implication of the pandemic.  

Hurst suggested 23% of price motion is oscillatory in nature and semi-predictable -by indicators like his centered moving averages/envelopes).    The remaining 2% of price movement is random.

An old but reasonable major trend reversal signal for a fast-moving stock was Gann's Rule of Three, which is looking for three sequential higher or lower closes in the opposite direction to a main trend as a reversal signal.

In the image below,  such a bar has not arrived yet, so I assume in the bigger picture the trend is still down for the time being.  (There seems to be a problem uploading images to this post.  So I will try again later).

With a severe bear market in place in 2020, due to the global coronavirus pandemic, bear market bottom hunting will be the discussion topic in the May 2020 User Group meeting/webinar.

Does anyone watch the news, and find tht it might give us a heads up?

Any early thoughts on the topic can be posted in the user forum here.

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